Thursday, October 25, 2007

Annual Report to Congress

Military Power of the People's Republic of China, 2007.


Byron said...

I haven't completed reading this report yet. Just got started, in fact. I've already found something that is rampant in reports of China's military strength. The DF-31 ICBM. First tested in 1992...blew up. In 1999, they finally had a successful test. In 2005, the Second Artillery Corps (SAC) was estimated to have between 8 and 12 of these in inventory. In 2006, the DOD was unsure whether the platform had reached operational deployment...that is, whether the Chinese had enough parts, technicians, etc. to keep the missiles in existence maintained and ready to be used. Everywhere you look at China's 'strategic' forces this is what you see: enough strategic assets to commit national suicide and not a thing else.

OK, in the six years from 1999 to 2005 they managed to complete 8 to 12 DF-31's. That's an average of 1 1/3 to 2 annually. So they might have completed anywhere from 2 2/3 to 4 additional missiles by now. Wow, they might have 16 ICBM's that can either carry one 1MT nuclear weapon or MIRV three 150KT weapons. So, they could hit a maximum of 48 targets. And how many thousand ICBM's would they get in return?

Byron said...

But, hey, I am impressed with one thing, the DF-31 is apparently not a copy of a Soviet design.

The Chinese are definitely trying to become a world power. But they've got a good long way to go before they're to a place where they can rattle sabers effectively beyond their own back yard.